Job losses are hitting closer to home
World War II - the last time we have seen times like these.
Job losses are the worst they've been since the 1970's and speculation seems to claim it isn't going to get any better. I've heard the rumors, watched the news and studied the statistics and it is perfectly clear to me that we are in a ression that could be leading into a depression.
My dad always used to say "I'll get a computer the day it can build a house for me" and other things like "People will always need a house to live in" so I thought he would always be working. He made me second guess my field - design and Internet marketing. A few years ago, things were rocking and he was building a new house every other couple of days. New sub divisions were going up each time I drove outside the hometown area - a radius of 10 miles. He was buying new tools, hiring the best people he could (no one wants to do this type of work) and enjoying the life of a successful contractor.
Now, late 2008, he is going from odd job to odd job trying to find anything to keep the bills paid. On top of that, we just learned the other day that my father's girlfriend also just lost her job of 14 years. They all of a sudden decided they didn't need her anymore. What a shock this was.
My mother-in-law works at a local unemployment office and has said that she has seen a surge in new cases. She went on to tell us she must arrive at work an hour early just to get a parking spot and beat the 300 people waiting to obtain unemployment benefits.
Posted by scott at 01:51AM in politics
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What I find interesting about the chart is that the seasonably adjusted job losses are actually on the way DOWN.
Also, lay the presidents' terms beside the chart and you see an interesting pattern.
George HW Bush lost largely because of the economy, right? Well, look at what was happening up until he began to consider a second term! Job losses at the beginning of his third year were negligible, with a GAIN during the First Gulf War. All it took to beat him was the rhetoric of two opponents (Clinton and Perot) and a compromise with the Democrats on taxes, and a 90% rating went in the tank!
The job losses went to the ceiling in the eight years of Clinton, signaling a change of power in 2000. Then, the slope went straight down before bouncing mid-term, returning to election day levels in time for a second term. But with the war on terror effecting the economy at home, and Republican losses in Congress, the job losses headed up. By mid-term, with the Democratic "takeover" of Congress, the job losses began to go back down ever so slowly. The spike in actual job losses this year are far below those of 2000, Clinton's last year.
And so, our new president actually has it pretty good IF the trend continues as seen on the graph. Now, if he doesn't look at the large picture, the long-term cycle, and instead tries to manage the economy with TAX dollars instead, THEN we are in REAL trouble!
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